Politics · Resolves Dec 31
Will no one leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?
Our chance
56%
About 3 in 5
Market 58%
Yes 56%No 44%
Why
- The market says 58%, and it's well traded, so it gets most of the say
- Things like this happen about 45% of the time, by our estimate, which pulls us down 3 points
- Even a quiet market can jump on one headline, so we keep a minimum range
The range
In 9 of 10 simulations, the chance lands between 40% and 70%.
Over time
Since Jun 14, the market has gone from 16% to 58%.
Oct 9Market 58%Our number 56%
More in Politics
How we got this number
- We start from the Polymarket price (58%) and blend in a base rate of 45% on the log-odds scale. Here the market carries 78% of the weight: a deep, fresh market earns more, a thin or stale one less.
- Why 45%: most presidential years see at least one cabinet-level departure, so a clean year is the underdog; 45% is the forecaster's judgment call.
- Then we run 40,000 simulations. Their spread comes from how far the market moved over the past 30 days, the time left, and a small shock shared by every question (news that moves many markets at once). Our number is the middle of the runs (the median); the range is the middle 90%.
- One-off questions can't be backtested, so the ranges are wide on purpose. We grade every question when it resolves.
$45K traded on Polymarket ↗How our calls have done ›
Model events-v1.1.0 · Updated Oct 9