10 open questions

World events

Our probability for the questions the world is betting on.

Economy

Will there be a US recession by end of 2026?

Resolves Dec 31, 2026

7%

Market 6%

Will the Fed hold rates steady in December?

Resolves Dec 10, 2026

25%

Market 23%

Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in 2026?

Resolves Dec 31, 2026

40%

Market 39%

Politics

Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?

Resolves Dec 31, 2026

19%

Market 20%

Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027?

Resolves Dec 31, 2026

11%

Market 10%

Will no one leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?

Resolves Dec 31, 2026

56%

Market 58%

Law

Will Justice Alito announce his retirement by June 2027?

Resolves Jun 30, 2027

36%

Market 39%

Tech

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of 2026?

Resolves Dec 31, 2026

41%

Market 42%

Will Google have the best AI model at the end of 2026?

Resolves Dec 31, 2026

40%

Market 43%

Will OpenAI launch a social network in 2026?

Resolves Dec 31, 2026

11%

Market 12%