Economy · Resolves Dec 31
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in 2026?
Our chance
40%
About 2 in 5
Market 39%
Yes 40%No 60%
Why
- The market says 39%, and it's well traded, so it gets most of the say
- Things like this happen about 45% of the time, by our estimate, which lifts us 1 point
- The market swung between 26% and 63% over the past month, so we allow a wide range
The range
In 9 of 10 simulations, the chance lands between 14% and 73%.
Over time
Since Jun 14, the market has gone from 19% to 39%.
Oct 9Market 39%Our number 40%
More in Economy
How we got this number
- We start from the Polymarket price (39%) and blend in a base rate of 45% on the log-odds scale. Here the market carries 78% of the weight: a deep, fresh market earns more, a thin or stale one less.
- Why 45%: with Bitcoin already near $85,000, a $95,000 touch is a near-the-money milestone; such price-target markets resolve roughly half the time. Forecaster judgment.
- Then we run 40,000 simulations. Their spread comes from how far the market moved over the past 30 days, the time left, and a small shock shared by every question (news that moves many markets at once). Our number is the middle of the runs (the median); the range is the middle 90%.
- One-off questions can't be backtested, so the ranges are wide on purpose. We grade every question when it resolves.
$920K traded on Polymarket ↗How our calls have done ›
Model events-v1.1.0 · Updated Oct 9