Economy · Resolves Dec 10
Will the Fed hold rates steady in December?
Our chance
25%
About 1 in 4
Market 23%
Yes 25%No 75%
Why
- The market says 23%, and it's well traded, so it gets most of the say
- Things like this happen about 30% of the time, by our estimate, which lifts us 1 point
- The market swung between 20% and 49% over the past month, so we allow a wide range
The range
In 9 of 10 simulations, the chance lands between 9% and 51%.
Over time
Since Jul 31, the market has gone from 57% to 23%.
Oct 9Market 23%Our number 25%
More in Economy
How we got this number
- We start from the Polymarket price (23%) and blend in a base rate of 30% on the log-odds scale. Here the market carries 78% of the weight: a deep, fresh market earns more, a thin or stale one less.
- Why 30%: since 2000 the Fed has held rates at roughly a third of December meetings; with inflation near target in 2026, 30% is the forecaster's judgment call.
- Then we run 40,000 simulations. Their spread comes from how far the market moved over the past 30 days, the time left, and a small shock shared by every question (news that moves many markets at once). Our number is the middle of the runs (the median); the range is the middle 90%.
- One-off questions can't be backtested, so the ranges are wide on purpose. We grade every question when it resolves.
$652K traded on Polymarket ↗How our calls have done ›
Model events-v1.1.0 · Updated Oct 9