Economy · Resolves Dec 31
Will there be a US recession by end of 2026?
Our chance
7%
About 1 in 14
Market 6%
Yes 7%No 93%
Why
- The market says 6%, and it's well traded, so it gets most of the say
- Things like this happen about 12% of the time, by our estimate, which lifts us 1 point
- The market swung between 7% and 17% over the past month, so we allow a wide range
The range
In 9 of 10 simulations, the chance lands between 3% and 17%.
Over time
Since Jun 14, the market has gone from 18% to 6%.
Oct 9Market 6%Our number 7%
More in Economy
How we got this number
- We start from the Polymarket price (6%) and blend in a base rate of 12% on the log-odds scale. Here the market carries 78% of the weight: a deep, fresh market earns more, a thin or stale one less.
- Why 12%: NBER chronology lists 12 US recessions since 1948 (roughly one every six years). A two-year window sits below the annualized rate; 12% is the forecaster's judgment call.
- Then we run 40,000 simulations. Their spread comes from how far the market moved over the past 30 days, the time left, and a small shock shared by every question (news that moves many markets at once). Our number is the middle of the runs (the median); the range is the middle 90%.
- One-off questions can't be backtested, so the ranges are wide on purpose. We grade every question when it resolves.
$2.3M traded on Polymarket ↗How our calls have done ›
Model events-v1.1.0 · Updated Oct 9