Every call, graded
Track record
Sports has results so far, and one world-events question has been graded. Elections and the other world events are still open: we keep tracking them and grade each call once it's decided.
SportsResults inGames we called this season that our pick won. Our own chances expected about 9.2.Graded automatically as games end · Updated Oct 99of 15ElectionsTrackingNo results yet. 470 races and both chambers, graded after election day.Forecast refreshed daily, every 15 minutes from Oct 20 · Updated Oct 9Nov 3World eventsResults inResolved questions we called right. 10 more are open.Prices and our numbers refreshed daily · Updated Oct 91of 1
How we grade
We take the number we published before the game, race or deadline, and check it against the result.
Two questions: did the side we favored win, and was our confidence the right size? A miss at 90% counts for far more than a miss at 55%.
The scoring rule
We use the Brier score: the squared gap between our probability and what happened (1 if it happened, 0 if not), averaged over every call. 0 is perfect. Saying 50% every time scores 0.25.
Saying 80% on something that happens scores 0.04. Saying 80% on something that doesn't scores 0.64.
What we hold to
- Only real calls
- The record counts forecasts we published before the event, nothing run after the fact.
- Fixed before the event
- The method is set before a game or race. We don't tune it after.
- Misses stay up
- Every miss is published next to the wins.
- Every figure sourced
- Each number names the data it came from.