This season

Sports

Every game we called before it started, graded when it ended.

9of 15

Our pick won 60% of the games we called.

Our own chances expected about 9.2 right. A 60% pick still loses 4 times in 10.

Every game since Sun, Oct 4, called before it started. Preseason is graded on its own, below.

9 right6 missed

By league

NFL9 of 15 60%expected 9.2

NBA preseason9 of 19 47%expected 12.0

NBA regular seasonStarts Oct 20

Preseason games are graded on their own, not in the record above. Starters sit, so they sit close to a coin flip: tested on the last ten preseasons, our preseason model picked 57% of games right.

Us vs the market

Once 100 graded games have a market price to compare against (15 so far), this shows our picks next to the betting market's on the same games at the same moment, whichever comes out ahead.

The edge, graded

Today's Edge ›

When our ratings and the betting market disagree by 10 points or more, the game goes on the Edge page before it starts and is graded here after it ends. None have been graded yet. Preseason games don't count here.

Our ratings are our read before any market price: team strength, injuries, rest and home edge. Before launch we checked 2,400 past NBA games: when the two disagreed this much, results landed close to the market's number. This is where we find out, in public, whether ours can do better.

Confident calls vs close ones

Calls at 65% or more4 of 5 80%

Calls under 65%5 of 10 50%

Every pick

Newest first

Thu, Oct 8

Spurs over the HawksPreseasonNBA · Final ATL 123, SAS 11670%✗Heat over the PelicansPreseasonNBA · Final NOP 118, MIA 12870%✓76ers over the NetsPreseasonNBA · Final PHI 108, BKN 11470%✗Knicks over the WizardsPreseasonNBA · Final WAS 111, NYK 10969%✗Celtics over the CavaliersPreseasonNBA · Final BOS 124, CLE 11355%✓

Wed, Oct 7

Trail Blazers over the WarriorsPreseasonNBA · Final GSW 118, POR 12379%✓Thunder over the BucksPreseasonNBA · Final MIL 128, OKC 12679%✗Magic over the GrizzliesPreseasonNBA · Final ORL 122, MEM 11853%✓Suns over the BullsPreseasonNBA · Final PHX 117, CHI 12456%✗Timberwolves over the PacersPreseasonNBA · Final MIN 112, IND 12356%✗

Tue, Oct 6

Warriors over the LakersPreseasonNBA · Final LAL 98, GSW 12463%✓Nuggets over the JazzPreseasonNBA · Final DEN 117, UTA 10651%✓Thunder over the PelicansPreseasonNBA · Final NOP 116, OKC 11057%✗Hornets over the NetsPreseasonNBA · Final BKN 124, CHA 9064%✗

Mon, Oct 5

Lakers over the KingsPreseasonNBA · Final LAL 127, SAC 10364%✓Saints over the FalconsNFL · Final ATL 45, NO 2452%✗Timberwolves over the BucksPreseasonNBA · Final MIN 116, MIL 9764%✓Hawks over the GrizzliesPreseasonNBA · Final MEM 132, ATL 12360%✗Knicks over the 76ersPreseasonNBA · Final NYK 97, PHI 12061%✗Pistons over the SunsPreseasonNBA · Final PHX 107, DET 10958%✓

Sun, Oct 4

Lions over the PanthersNFL · Final DET 26, CAR 3261%✗49ers over the BroncosNFL · Final DEN 14, SF 2457%✓Chiefs over the RaidersNFL · Final KC 30, LV 2760%✓Seahawks over the ChargersNFL · Final LAC 23, SEA 3071%✓Vikings over the DolphinsNFL · Final MIA 10, MIN 1577%✓Giants over the CardinalsNFL · Final ARI 24, NYG 3653%✓Texans over the CowboysNFL · Final DAL 34, HOU 3057%✗Packers over the BuccaneersNFL · Final GB 17, TB 1457%✓Bengals over the JaguarsNFL · Final JAX 22, CIN 1753%✗Eagles over the RamsNFL · Final LAR 24, PHI 2051%✗Bills over the PatriotsNFL · Final NE 29, BUF 2670%✗Bears over the JetsNFL · Final NYJ 12, CHI 2367%✓Ravens over the TitansNFL · Final TEN 18, BAL 2480%✓Colts over the CommandersNFL · Final IND 30, WSH 1354%✓

This week's calls ›

How we grade

For each game we take the last number the public could see before it started, and check it against the final score. Our pick is the side we gave the better chance.

We don't take our own word for it: every 15 minutes we read the numbers off this site, as anyone would see them, and keep that log. A game counts only with a number the live site showed before kickoff. A number that never made it to the site can't be graded. (The games of Oct 4, before the log existed, were graded on the number our model saved before kickoff.)

Every game we called counts, right or wrong. Once a game is graded it is never changed or removed. Ties aren't graded. NBA preseason games are graded on their own and marked as preseason.

In preseason, starters play about half the minutes, so we halve the expected margin and widen the range, and a team on the second night of a back-to-back gives up about 4.7 points (coaches rest their starters). We tested this on 676 preseason games from the last ten preseasons, each predicted only from what was known before it: it picked 57% of them right.

On Oct 5 we voided three preseason games we had graded by mistake. Their numbers came from a test run that was never on the site before the games started, so they were not real calls. We fixed the model the same day, and the preseason record starts again with the games of Oct 5.

Brier score so far: 0.216. It is the average squared gap between our number and what happened: 0 is perfect, and saying 50% every time scores 0.250.

Sources

Final scores from ESPN's public scoreboard. Our numbers from our own published history, timestamped when we post them.