NBA · Regular season ·
Will the Cavaliers beat the Wizards?
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Cavaliers win chance
95%
Typical margin: Cavaliers by 22.5
Wizards 5%Cavaliers 95%
In short
- Our ratings favor the Cavaliers by 18 points, home court included
- Injuries tilt it toward the Cavaliers by 4.3 points
Why this number
PremiumEvery step from a coin flip to our number, in the order our model adds them.
- An even game50%Every game starts as a coin flip.
- Home court+1161%Playing at home is worth about 3.9 points to the Cavaliers.
- See how far every step moved our number.
- Our numberCavaliers 95%
Each step is that piece's share of the model, so the steps add up to the number we published.
The range
In 9 of 10 simulations, the result lands between a tie and Cavaliers by 45.
What if he's out?
PremiumSwitch a player off and we rerun the game without him.
Cavaliers win chance
95%
Wizards 5%Cavaliers 95%
- Top scorerWizards
- Top scorerCavaliers
In our model a star out costs his team 4.5 points, up to 9 for a whole roster.
A preview of Premium, which we're building now.
Injury report
Wizards
- Tristan VukcevicOut
- Jamir WatkinsOut
- Alex SarrDay-To-Day
- Khris MiddletonDay-To-Day
Cavaliers
- Khalifa DiopDay-To-Day
- Nae'Qwan TomlinDay-To-Day
- James HardenDay-To-Day
Our method
- We simulate the final margin 40,000 times from our team ratings (Elo, fitted walk-forward) and the ESPN injury report.
- The win chance is the share of those simulations each team wins.
- Model v1.2.0, updated Oct 9.