Edge
Games where our ratings and the betting market disagree by 10 points or more on the same team. Every one is logged before it starts and graded after, whoever ends up closer.
2026-10-11
2026-10-12
2026-10-13
A preview of Premium, which we're building now.
How the Edge works
Our ratings are our own read of the game before any market price: team strength, injuries, rest and home edge. The market is Polymarket's price at the same moment.
A game makes the list when the two are 10 points or more apart on the same team. The number on each game page still gives the market most of the say, because over the last ten seasons the market on its own was the most accurate single input.
Before launch we checked 2,400 past NBA games: when our ratings and the market disagreed this much, results landed close to the market's number. We publish every disagreement anyway and grade it on the track record, so you can see whether that changes.
Estimates only. Not betting advice.