NBA · Regular season ·
Will the Grizzlies beat the Jazz?
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Grizzlies win chance
72%
Typical margin: Grizzlies by 8
Jazz 28%Grizzlies 72%
In short
- Our ratings favor the Grizzlies by 4.7 points, home court included
- Injuries tilt it toward the Grizzlies by 3.3 points
Why this number
PremiumEvery step from a coin flip to our number, in the order our model adds them.
- An even game50%Every game starts as a coin flip.
- Home court+1262%Playing at home is worth about 3.9 points to the Grizzlies.
- See how far every step moved our number.
- Our numberGrizzlies 72%
Each step is that piece's share of the model, so the steps add up to the number we published.
The range
In 9 of 10 simulations, the result lands between Jazz by 14 and Grizzlies by 30.
What if he's out?
PremiumSwitch a player off and we rerun the game without him.
Grizzlies win chance
72%
Jazz 28%Grizzlies 72%
- Top scorerJazz
- Top scorerGrizzlies
In our model a star out costs his team 4.5 points, up to 9 for a whole roster.
A preview of Premium, which we're building now.
Our number over time
Up 8 from 64% to 72%
Oct 3Oct 9
Injury report
Jazz
- Jusuf NurkicOut
- Lauri MarkkanenDay-To-Day
- Brice SensabaughDay-To-Day
- Kyle FilipowskiDay-To-Day
Grizzlies
- Micah PeavyDay-To-Day
- Isaiah StewartDay-To-Day
Our method
- We simulate the final margin 40,000 times from our team ratings (Elo, fitted walk-forward) and the ESPN injury report.
- The win chance is the share of those simulations each team wins.
- Model v1.2.0, updated Oct 9.