NBA · Regular season ·
Will the Grizzlies beat the Jazz?
at
Grizzlies win chance
51%
Typical margin: Grizzlies by 0.5
Grizzlies 51%Jazz 49%
In short
- Our ratings favor the Jazz by 3.2 points, home court included
- Injuries tilt it toward the Grizzlies by 3.3 points
- Close to a coin flip on our numbers
Why this number
PremiumEvery step from a coin flip to our number, in the order our model adds them.
- An even game50%Every game starts as a coin flip.
- Home court−1139%Playing at home is worth about 3.9 points to the Jazz.
- See how far every step moved our number.
- Our numberGrizzlies 51%
Each step is that piece's share of the model, so the steps add up to the number we published.
The range
In 9 of 10 simulations, the result lands between Grizzlies by 22 and Jazz by 22.
What if he's out?
PremiumSwitch a player off and we rerun the game without him.
Grizzlies win chance
50%
Grizzlies 50%Jazz 50%
- Top scorerGrizzlies
- Top scorerJazz
In our model a star out costs his team 4.5 points, up to 9 for a whole roster.
A preview of Premium, which we're building now.
Our number over time
Up 11 from 40% to 51%
Oct 5Oct 9
Injury report
Grizzlies
- Micah PeavyDay-To-Day
- Isaiah StewartDay-To-Day
Jazz
- Jusuf NurkicOut
- Lauri MarkkanenDay-To-Day
- Brice SensabaughDay-To-Day
- Kyle FilipowskiDay-To-Day
Our method
- We simulate the final margin 40,000 times from our team ratings (Elo, fitted walk-forward) and the ESPN injury report.
- The win chance is the share of those simulations each team wins.
- Model v1.2.0, updated Oct 9.