NBA · Regular season ·
Will the Hawks beat the Heat?
at
Hawks win chance
66%
Typical margin: Hawks by 5.5
Heat 34%Hawks 66%
In short
- Our ratings favor the Hawks by 5.5 points, home court included
- Injuries roughly cancel out
Why this number
PremiumEvery step from a coin flip to our number, in the order our model adds them.
- An even game50%Every game starts as a coin flip.
- Home court+1161%Playing at home is worth about 3.9 points to the Hawks.
- See how far every step moved our number.
- Our numberHawks 66%
Each step is that piece's share of the model, so the steps add up to the number we published.
The range
In 9 of 10 simulations, the result lands between Heat by 17 and Hawks by 28.
What if he's out?
PremiumSwitch a player off and we rerun the game without him.
Hawks win chance
66%
Heat 34%Hawks 66%
- Top scorerHeat
- Top scorerHawks
In our model a star out costs his team 4.5 points, up to 9 for a whole roster.
A preview of Premium, which we're building now.
Injury report
Heat
- Keshad JohnsonOut
- Kylor KelleyDay-To-Day
- Pelle LarssonDay-To-Day
- Dru SmithDay-To-Day
Hawks
- Henri VeesaarOut
- Keshon GilbertDay-To-Day
- Luguentz DortDay-To-Day
- Jalen JohnsonDay-To-Day
- Mouhamed GueyeDay-To-Day
Our method
- We simulate the final margin 40,000 times from our team ratings (Elo, fitted walk-forward) and the ESPN injury report.
- The win chance is the share of those simulations each team wins.
- Model v1.2.0, updated Oct 9.