NBA · Regular season ·
Will the Lakers beat the Warriors?
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Lakers win chance
88%
Typical margin: Lakers by 16
Warriors 12%Lakers 88%
In short
- Our ratings favor the Lakers by 8.9 points, home court included
- Injuries tilt it toward the Lakers by 7.1 points
Why this number
PremiumEvery step from a coin flip to our number, in the order our model adds them.
- An even game50%Every game starts as a coin flip.
- Home court+1161%Playing at home is worth about 3.9 points to the Lakers.
- See how far every step moved our number.
- Our numberLakers 88%
Each step is that piece's share of the model, so the steps add up to the number we published.
The range
In 9 of 10 simulations, the result lands between Warriors by 6 and Lakers by 38.
What if he's out?
PremiumSwitch a player off and we rerun the game without him.
Lakers win chance
88%
Warriors 12%Lakers 88%
- Top scorerWarriors
- Top scorerLakers
In our model a star out costs his team 4.5 points, up to 9 for a whole roster.
A preview of Premium, which we're building now.
Our number over time
Up 11 from 77% to 88%
Oct 3Oct 9
Injury report
Warriors
- Jimmy Butler IIIOut
- Moses MoodyOut
- Gui SantosDay-To-Day
- Brandin PodziemskiDay-To-Day
- Gary Payton IIDay-To-Day
- Georges NiangDay-To-Day
- De'Anthony MeltonDay-To-Day
- Yaxel LendeborgDay-To-Day
Lakers
- Dalton KnechtDay-To-Day
- Walker KesslerDay-To-Day
- Collin SextonDay-To-Day
- Arthur KalumaDay-To-Day
- Ziaire WilliamsDay-To-Day
- Cameron CarrDay-To-Day
Our method
- We simulate the final margin 40,000 times from our team ratings (Elo, fitted walk-forward) and the ESPN injury report.
- The win chance is the share of those simulations each team wins.
- Model v1.2.0, updated Oct 9.