NBA · Regular season ·
Will the Spurs beat the Mavericks?
at
Spurs win chance
71%
Typical margin: Spurs by 7.5
Spurs 71%Mavericks 29%
In short
- Our ratings favor the Spurs by 8.5 points, home court included
- Injuries tilt it toward the Mavericks by 1.0 points
Why this number
PremiumEvery step from a coin flip to our number, in the order our model adds them.
- An even game50%Every game starts as a coin flip.
- Home court−1139%Playing at home is worth about 3.9 points to the Mavericks.
- See how far every step moved our number.
- Our numberSpurs 71%
Each step is that piece's share of the model, so the steps add up to the number we published.
The range
In 9 of 10 simulations, the result lands between Spurs by 30 and Mavericks by 15.
What if he's out?
PremiumSwitch a player off and we rerun the game without him.
Spurs win chance
71%
Spurs 71%Mavericks 29%
- Top scorerSpurs
- Top scorerMavericks
In our model a star out costs his team 4.5 points, up to 9 for a whole roster.
A preview of Premium, which we're building now.
Our number over time
Up 5 from 66% to 71%
Oct 3Oct 9
Injury report
Spurs
- Jayden QuaintanceOut
- Malik WilliamsDay-To-Day
- De'Aaron FoxDay-To-Day
- Maliq BrownDay-To-Day
- Tobias HarrisDay-To-Day
Mavericks
- Santi AldamaDay-To-Day
- Dereck Lively IIDay-To-Day
Our method
- We simulate the final margin 40,000 times from our team ratings (Elo, fitted walk-forward) and the ESPN injury report.
- The win chance is the share of those simulations each team wins.
- Model v1.2.0, updated Oct 9.