NBA · Regular season ·
Will the Magic beat the Hawks?
at
Magic win chance
58%
Typical margin: Magic by 3
Hawks 42%Magic 58%
In short
- Our ratings favor the Magic by 2.8 points, home court included
- Injuries roughly cancel out
Why this number
PremiumEvery step from a coin flip to our number, in the order our model adds them.
- An even game50%Every game starts as a coin flip.
- Home court+1161%Playing at home is worth about 3.9 points to the Magic.
- See how far every step moved our number.
- Our numberMagic 58%
Each step is that piece's share of the model, so the steps add up to the number we published.
The range
In 9 of 10 simulations, the result lands between Hawks by 20 and Magic by 25.
What if he's out?
PremiumSwitch a player off and we rerun the game without him.
Magic win chance
58%
Hawks 42%Magic 58%
- Top scorerHawks
- Top scorerMagic
In our model a star out costs his team 4.5 points, up to 9 for a whole roster.
A preview of Premium, which we're building now.
Our number over time
Up 5 from 53% to 58%
Oct 3Oct 9
Injury report
Hawks
- Henri VeesaarOut
- Keshon GilbertDay-To-Day
- Luguentz DortDay-To-Day
- Jalen JohnsonDay-To-Day
- Mouhamed GueyeDay-To-Day
Magic
- Izaiyah NelsonOut
- Noah PendaDay-To-Day
- Anthony BlackDay-To-Day
- Jalen SuggsDay-To-Day
- Jonathan IsaacDay-To-Day
Our method
- We simulate the final margin 40,000 times from our team ratings (Elo, fitted walk-forward) and the ESPN injury report.
- The win chance is the share of those simulations each team wins.
- Model v1.2.0, updated Oct 9.