NFL · Week 5 ·
Will the Rams beat the Bills?
at
Rams win chance
59%
Typical margin: Rams by 3
Market 61%
Bills 41%Rams 59%
In short
- The market (Polymarket) has the Rams at 61%, and it carries 85% of our number
Why this number
PremiumEvery step from a coin flip to our number, in the order our model adds them.
- An even game50%Every game starts as a coin flip.
- Home field+151%Playing at home is worth about 1.7 points to the Rams.
- See how far every step moved our number.
- Our numberRams 59%
Each step is that piece's share of the model, so the steps add up to the number we published.
The range
In 9 of 10 simulations, the result lands between Bills by 19 and Rams by 25.
What if he's out?
PremiumSwitch a player off and we rerun the game without him.
Rams win chance
59%
Bills 41%Rams 59%
- Starting QBQB · Bills
- Starting QBQB · Rams
In our model a starting quarterback out costs his team 3 points.
A preview of Premium, which we're building now.
Our number over time
Up 1 from 58% to 59%
Oct 6Oct 8
Rams -2.5Our chance they cover the spread52%
Rams win by 10+ pointsOur chance30%
Rams win by 14+ pointsOur chance21%
Injury report
Bills
- DJ Moore · WRQuestionable
- Christian Benford · CBQuestionable
- Landon Jackson · DEQuestionable
- Dee Alford · CBQuestionable
- Te'Cory Couch · CBQuestionable
- Ed Oliver · DTQuestionable
Rams
- Terrance Ferguson · TEInjured Reserve
- Colby Parkinson · TEQuestionable
- Jaylen Watson · CBQuestionable
- Nate Landman · LBQuestionable
- Quentin Lake · SQuestionable
- Grant Stuard · LBQuestionable
- Josaiah Stewart · LBQuestionable
- Aaron Donald · DTQuestionable
Our method
- We simulate the final margin 40,000 times from our team ratings (margin-aware Elo, fitted on nflverse 2015–2025) and the injury report.
- The win chance is the share of those simulations each team wins.
- When the market has a price (Polymarket), it gets 85% of the say and our ratings the rest: over the last ten seasons that mix picked 66.8% of games right, more than either alone.
- Model nfl-v1.2.0, updated Oct 9.