NBA · Regular season ·
Will the Pistons beat the Celtics?
at
Pistons win chance
60%
Typical margin: Pistons by 3.5
Celtics 40%Pistons 60%
In short
- Our ratings favor the Pistons by 3.6 points, home court included
Why this number
PremiumEvery step from a coin flip to our number, in the order our model adds them.
- An even game50%Every game starts as a coin flip.
- Home court+1161%Playing at home is worth about 3.9 points to the Pistons.
- See how far every step moved our number.
- Our numberPistons 60%
Each step is that piece's share of the model, so the steps add up to the number we published.
The range
In 9 of 10 simulations, the result lands between Celtics by 19 and Pistons by 26.
What if he's out?
PremiumSwitch a player off and we rerun the game without him.
Pistons win chance
60%
Celtics 40%Pistons 60%
- Top scorerCeltics
- Top scorerPistons
In our model a star out costs his team 4.5 points, up to 9 for a whole roster.
A preview of Premium, which we're building now.
Injury report
Celtics
- Sam HauserDay-To-Day
- Ron Harper Jr.Day-To-Day
- Payton PritchardDay-To-Day
- Mitchell RobinsonDay-To-Day
- Neemias QuetaDay-To-Day
- Paul GeorgeDay-To-Day
- Jayson TatumDay-To-Day
- Derrick WhiteDay-To-Day
Pistons
- Jalen DurenDay-To-Day
Our method
- We simulate the final margin 40,000 times from our team ratings (Elo, fitted walk-forward) and the ESPN injury report.
- The win chance is the share of those simulations each team wins.
- Model v1.2.0, updated Oct 9.