NBA · Regular season ·
Will the Nets beat the Pacers?
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Nets win chance
56%
Typical margin: Nets by 2
Pacers 44%Nets 56%
In short
- Our ratings favor the Nets by 1.7 points, home court included
- Injuries tilt it toward the Nets by 2.3 points
Why this number
PremiumEvery step from a coin flip to our number, in the order our model adds them.
- An even game50%Every game starts as a coin flip.
- Home court+1161%Playing at home is worth about 3.9 points to the Nets.
- See how far every step moved our number.
- Our numberNets 56%
Each step is that piece's share of the model, so the steps add up to the number we published.
The range
In 9 of 10 simulations, the result lands between Pacers by 20 and Nets by 24.
What if he's out?
PremiumSwitch a player off and we rerun the game without him.
Nets win chance
56%
Pacers 44%Nets 56%
- Top scorerPacers
- Top scorerNets
In our model a star out costs his team 4.5 points, up to 9 for a whole roster.
A preview of Premium, which we're building now.
Our number over time
Down 1 from 57% to 56%
Oct 3Oct 9
Injury report
Pacers
- Johnny FurphyOut
- Larry Nance Jr.Day-To-Day
- T.J. McConnellDay-To-Day
Nets
- Joshua JeffersonDay-To-Day
- Mikel Brown Jr.Day-To-Day
- Day'Ron SharpeDay-To-Day
- Michael Porter Jr.Day-To-Day
Our method
- We simulate the final margin 40,000 times from our team ratings (Elo, fitted walk-forward) and the ESPN injury report.
- The win chance is the share of those simulations each team wins.
- Model v1.2.0, updated Oct 9.