NBA · Regular season ·
Will the Rockets beat the Mavericks?
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Rockets win chance
82%
Typical margin: Rockets by 12.5
Mavericks 18%Rockets 82%
In short
- Our ratings favor the Rockets by 13 points, home court included
Why this number
PremiumEvery step from a coin flip to our number, in the order our model adds them.
- An even game50%Every game starts as a coin flip.
- Home court+1161%Playing at home is worth about 3.9 points to the Rockets.
- See how far every step moved our number.
- Our numberRockets 82%
Each step is that piece's share of the model, so the steps add up to the number we published.
The range
In 9 of 10 simulations, the result lands between Mavericks by 10 and Rockets by 35.
What if he's out?
PremiumSwitch a player off and we rerun the game without him.
Rockets win chance
82%
Mavericks 18%Rockets 82%
- Top scorerMavericks
- Top scorerRockets
In our model a star out costs his team 4.5 points, up to 9 for a whole roster.
A preview of Premium, which we're building now.
Our number over time
Down 6 from 88% to 82%
Oct 3Oct 9
Injury report
Mavericks
- Santi AldamaDay-To-Day
- Dereck Lively IIDay-To-Day
Our method
- We simulate the final margin 40,000 times from our team ratings (Elo, fitted walk-forward) and the ESPN injury report.
- The win chance is the share of those simulations each team wins.
- Model v1.2.0, updated Oct 9.