NBA · Regular season ·
Will the Spurs beat the Rockets?
at
Spurs win chance
68%
Typical margin: Spurs by 6.5
Rockets 32%Spurs 68%
In short
- Our ratings favor the Spurs by 7.6 points, home court included
- Injuries tilt it toward the Rockets by 1.0 points
Why this number
PremiumEvery step from a coin flip to our number, in the order our model adds them.
- An even game50%Every game starts as a coin flip.
- Home court+1161%Playing at home is worth about 3.9 points to the Spurs.
- See how far every step moved our number.
- Our numberSpurs 68%
Each step is that piece's share of the model, so the steps add up to the number we published.
The range
In 9 of 10 simulations, the result lands between Rockets by 16 and Spurs by 29.
What if he's out?
PremiumSwitch a player off and we rerun the game without him.
Spurs win chance
68%
Rockets 32%Spurs 68%
- Top scorerRockets
- Top scorerSpurs
In our model a star out costs his team 4.5 points, up to 9 for a whole roster.
A preview of Premium, which we're building now.
Our number over time
Up 8 from 60% to 68%
Oct 3Oct 9
Injury report
Spurs
- Jayden QuaintanceOut
- Malik WilliamsDay-To-Day
- De'Aaron FoxDay-To-Day
- Maliq BrownDay-To-Day
- Tobias HarrisDay-To-Day
Our method
- We simulate the final margin 40,000 times from our team ratings (Elo, fitted walk-forward) and the ESPN injury report.
- The win chance is the share of those simulations each team wins.
- Model v1.2.0, updated Oct 9.