NBA · Regular season ·
Will the Nuggets beat the Pelicans?
at
Nuggets win chance
65%
Typical margin: Nuggets by 5
Nuggets 65%Pelicans 35%
In short
- Our ratings favor the Nuggets by 5.0 points, home court included
Why this number
PremiumEvery step from a coin flip to our number, in the order our model adds them.
- An even game50%Every game starts as a coin flip.
- Home court−1139%Playing at home is worth about 3.9 points to the Pelicans.
- See how far every step moved our number.
- Our numberNuggets 65%
Each step is that piece's share of the model, so the steps add up to the number we published.
The range
In 9 of 10 simulations, the result lands between Nuggets by 27 and Pelicans by 17.
What if he's out?
PremiumSwitch a player off and we rerun the game without him.
Nuggets win chance
65%
Nuggets 65%Pelicans 35%
- Top scorerNuggets
- Top scorerPelicans
In our model a star out costs his team 4.5 points, up to 9 for a whole roster.
A preview of Premium, which we're building now.
Injury report
Nuggets
- Spencer JonesDay-To-Day
Pelicans
- Dejounte MurrayDay-To-Day
Our method
- We simulate the final margin 40,000 times from our team ratings (Elo, fitted walk-forward) and the ESPN injury report.
- The win chance is the share of those simulations each team wins.
- Model v1.2.0, updated Oct 9.