Will the Bucks beat the Pacers?

Bucks win chance

In short

• Our ratings favor the Bucks by 4.9 points, home court included
• Injuries tilt it toward the Bucks by 2.3 points

Every step from a coin flip to our number, in the order our model adds them.

1. An even game50%Every game starts as a coin flip.
2. Home court+1161%Playing at home is worth about 3.9 points to the Bucks.
3. Team strength+667%How the two teams compare in our ratings.
4. The market−364%What the betting market's price adds.
5. Injuries+266%Who is out, and what that is worth.
6. Rest+470%Rest days and back-to-backs.
7. See how far every step moved our number.See every step
8. Our numberBucks 73%

Each step is that piece's share of the model, so the steps add up to the number we published.

The range

In 9 of 10 simulations, the result lands between Pacers by 14 and Bucks by 31.

Switch a player off and we rerun the game without him.