NBA · Regular season ·
Will the Heat beat the Timberwolves?
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Heat win chance
65%
Typical margin: Heat by 5.5
Timberwolves 35%Heat 65%
In short
- Our ratings favor the Heat by 2.6 points, home court included
- Injuries tilt it toward the Heat by 2.7 points
Why this number
PremiumEvery step from a coin flip to our number, in the order our model adds them.
- An even game50%Every game starts as a coin flip.
- Home court+1161%Playing at home is worth about 3.9 points to the Heat.
- See how far every step moved our number.
- Our numberHeat 65%
Each step is that piece's share of the model, so the steps add up to the number we published.
The range
In 9 of 10 simulations, the result lands between Timberwolves by 17 and Heat by 28.
What if he's out?
PremiumSwitch a player off and we rerun the game without him.
Heat win chance
65%
Timberwolves 35%Heat 65%
- Top scorerTimberwolves
- Top scorerHeat
In our model a star out costs his team 4.5 points, up to 9 for a whole roster.
A preview of Premium, which we're building now.
Our number over time
Up 13 from 52% to 65%
Oct 3Oct 9
Injury report
Timberwolves
- Donte DiVincenzoOut
Heat
- Keshad JohnsonOut
- Kylor KelleyDay-To-Day
- Pelle LarssonDay-To-Day
- Dru SmithDay-To-Day
Our method
- We simulate the final margin 40,000 times from our team ratings (Elo, fitted walk-forward) and the ESPN injury report.
- The win chance is the share of those simulations each team wins.
- Model v1.2.0, updated Oct 9.