NBA · Regular season ·
Will the Thunder beat the Mavericks?
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Thunder win chance
74%
Typical margin: Thunder by 8.5
Thunder 74%Mavericks 26%
In short
- Our ratings favor the Thunder by 9.3 points, home court included
Why this number
PremiumEvery step from a coin flip to our number, in the order our model adds them.
- An even game50%Every game starts as a coin flip.
- Home court−1139%Playing at home is worth about 3.9 points to the Mavericks.
- See how far every step moved our number.
- Our numberThunder 74%
Each step is that piece's share of the model, so the steps add up to the number we published.
The range
In 9 of 10 simulations, the result lands between Thunder by 31 and Mavericks by 14.
What if he's out?
PremiumSwitch a player off and we rerun the game without him.
Thunder win chance
74%
Thunder 74%Mavericks 26%
- Top scorerThunder
- Top scorerMavericks
In our model a star out costs his team 4.5 points, up to 9 for a whole roster.
A preview of Premium, which we're building now.
Injury report
Thunder
- Thomas SorberDay-To-Day
- Chet HolmgrenDay-To-Day
- Nikola TopicDay-To-Day
- Isaiah HartensteinDay-To-Day
- Jaylin WilliamsDay-To-Day
Mavericks
- Santi AldamaDay-To-Day
- Dereck Lively IIDay-To-Day
Our method
- We simulate the final margin 40,000 times from our team ratings (Elo, fitted walk-forward) and the ESPN injury report.
- The win chance is the share of those simulations each team wins.
- Model v1.2.0, updated Oct 9.