NFL · Week 5 ·
Will the Falcons beat the Ravens?
at
Falcons win chance
59%
Typical margin: Falcons by 3
Market 61%
Ravens 41%Falcons 59%
In short
- The market (Polymarket) has the Falcons at 61%, and it carries 85% of our number
- Our ratings favor the Ravens by 0.8 points, home field included
Why this number
PremiumEvery step from a coin flip to our number, in the order our model adds them.
- An even game50%Every game starts as a coin flip.
- Home field+151%Playing at home is worth about 1.7 points to the Falcons.
- See how far every step moved our number.
- Our numberFalcons 59%
Each step is that piece's share of the model, so the steps add up to the number we published.
The range
In 9 of 10 simulations, the result lands between Ravens by 19 and Falcons by 25.
What if he's out?
PremiumSwitch a player off and we rerun the game without him.
Falcons win chance
59%
Ravens 41%Falcons 59%
- Starting QBQB · Ravens
- Starting QBQB · Falcons
In our model a starting quarterback out costs his team 3 points.
A preview of Premium, which we're building now.
Our number over time
Up 1 from 58% to 59%
Oct 6Oct 8
Falcons -3.5Our chance they cover the spread49%
Falcons win by 10+ pointsOur chance30%
Falcons win by 14+ pointsOur chance21%
Injury report
Ravens
- Durham Smythe · TEInjured Reserve
- Lamar Jackson · QBQuestionable
- Zay Flowers · WRQuestionable
- Marlon Humphrey · CBQuestionable
- Trey Hendrickson · LBQuestionable
- John Simpson · GQuestionable
- Cam Jurgens · CQuestionable
- Andrew Vorhees · GQuestionable
Falcons
- Jake Matthews · OTQuestionable
- Samson Ebukam · DEQuestionable
- Za'Darius Smith · DEQuestionable
- Divine Deablo · LBQuestionable
- Yasir Abdullah · LBQuestionable
Our method
- We simulate the final margin 40,000 times from our team ratings (margin-aware Elo, fitted on nflverse 2015–2025) and the injury report.
- The win chance is the share of those simulations each team wins.
- When the market has a price (Polymarket), it gets 85% of the say and our ratings the rest: over the last ten seasons that mix picked 66.8% of games right, more than either alone.
- Model nfl-v1.2.0, updated Oct 9.