NBA · Regular season ·
Will the Timberwolves beat the Raptors?
at
Timberwolves win chance
52%
Typical margin: Timberwolves by 0.5
Raptors 48%Timberwolves 52%
In short
- Our ratings favor the Timberwolves by 4.5 points, home court included
- Injuries tilt it toward the Raptors by 3.8 points
- Close to a coin flip on our numbers
Why this number
PremiumEvery step from a coin flip to our number, in the order our model adds them.
- An even game50%Every game starts as a coin flip.
- Home court+1464%Playing at home is worth about 3.9 points to the Timberwolves.
- See how far every step moved our number.
- Our numberTimberwolves 52%
Each step is that piece's share of the model, so the steps add up to the number we published.
The range
In 9 of 10 simulations, the result lands between Raptors by 22 and Timberwolves by 23.
What if he's out?
PremiumSwitch a player off and we rerun the game without him.
Timberwolves win chance
52%
Raptors 48%Timberwolves 52%
- Top scorerRaptors
- Top scorerTimberwolves
In our model a star out costs his team 4.5 points, up to 9 for a whole roster.
A preview of Premium, which we're building now.
Injury report
Raptors
- Trayce Jackson-DavisDay-To-Day
- Jamison BattleDay-To-Day
- Allen GravesDay-To-Day
- Kawhi LeonardDay-To-Day
- Nate BittleDay-To-Day
Timberwolves
- Donte DiVincenzoOut
Our method
- We simulate the final margin 40,000 times from our team ratings (Elo, fitted walk-forward) and the ESPN injury report.
- The win chance is the share of those simulations each team wins.
- Model v1.2.0, updated Oct 9.