NBA · Regular season ·
Will the Raptors beat the Magic?
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Raptors win chance
65%
Typical margin: Raptors by 5.5
Magic 35%Raptors 65%
In short
- Our ratings favor the Raptors by 4.4 points, home court included
- Injuries tilt it toward the Raptors by 1.0 points
Why this number
PremiumEvery step from a coin flip to our number, in the order our model adds them.
- An even game50%Every game starts as a coin flip.
- Home court+1161%Playing at home is worth about 3.9 points to the Raptors.
- See how far every step moved our number.
- Our numberRaptors 65%
Each step is that piece's share of the model, so the steps add up to the number we published.
The range
In 9 of 10 simulations, the result lands between Magic by 17 and Raptors by 28.
What if he's out?
PremiumSwitch a player off and we rerun the game without him.
Raptors win chance
65%
Magic 35%Raptors 65%
- Top scorerMagic
- Top scorerRaptors
In our model a star out costs his team 4.5 points, up to 9 for a whole roster.
A preview of Premium, which we're building now.
Injury report
Magic
- Izaiyah NelsonOut
- Noah PendaDay-To-Day
- Anthony BlackDay-To-Day
- Jalen SuggsDay-To-Day
- Jonathan IsaacDay-To-Day
Raptors
- Trayce Jackson-DavisDay-To-Day
- Jamison BattleDay-To-Day
- Allen GravesDay-To-Day
- Kawhi LeonardDay-To-Day
- Nate BittleDay-To-Day
Our method
- We simulate the final margin 40,000 times from our team ratings (Elo, fitted walk-forward) and the ESPN injury report.
- The win chance is the share of those simulations each team wins.
- Model v1.2.0, updated Oct 9.