NFL · Week 5 ·
Will the Bengals beat the Dolphins?
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Bengals win chance
73%
Typical margin: Bengals by 8
Market 75%
Bengals 73%Dolphins 27%
In short
- The market (Polymarket) has the Bengals at 75%, and it carries 85% of our number
- Our ratings favor the Bengals by 3.3 points, home field included
- Dolphins without Storm Duck (CB) and Reese Taylor (CB)
Why this number
PremiumEvery step from a coin flip to our number, in the order our model adds them.
- An even game50%Every game starts as a coin flip.
- Home field−149%Playing at home is worth about 1.7 points to the Dolphins.
- See how far every step moved our number.
- Our numberBengals 73%
Each step is that piece's share of the model, so the steps add up to the number we published.
The range
In 9 of 10 simulations, the result lands between Bengals by 30 and Dolphins by 14.
What if he's out?
PremiumSwitch a player off and we rerun the game without him.
Bengals win chance
73%
Bengals 73%Dolphins 27%
- Starting QBQB · Bengals
- Starting QBQB · Dolphins
In our model a starting quarterback out costs his team 3 points.
A preview of Premium, which we're building now.
Our number over time
Down 1 from 74% to 73%
Oct 6Oct 8
Bengals -7.5Our chance they cover the spread52%
Bengals win by 10+ pointsOur chance44%
Bengals win by 14+ pointsOur chance33%
Injury report
Bengals
- Jalen Davis · CBInjured Reserve
- Tee Higgins · WRQuestionable
- Ja'Marr Chase · WRQuestionable
- Bryan Cook · SQuestionable
- B.J. Hill · DTQuestionable
- Dalton Risner · GQuestionable
- Dexter Lawrence II · DTQuestionable
- Kyle Dugger · SQuestionable
Dolphins
- Storm Duck · CBOut
- Reese Taylor · CBOut
- Kenneth Grant · DTInjured Reserve
- Justin Joly · TEQuestionable
- Jaylen Wright · RBQuestionable
- Caleb Douglas · WRQuestionable
- Chris Bell · WRQuestionable
- Austin Jackson · OTQuestionable
Our method
- We simulate the final margin 40,000 times from our team ratings (margin-aware Elo, fitted on nflverse 2015–2025) and the injury report.
- The win chance is the share of those simulations each team wins.
- When the market has a price (Polymarket), it gets 85% of the say and our ratings the rest: over the last ten seasons that mix picked 66.8% of games right, more than either alone.
- Model nfl-v1.2.0, updated Oct 9.