NBA · Regular season ·
Will the Clippers beat the Kings?
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Clippers win chance
58%
Typical margin: Clippers by 2.5
Kings 42%Clippers 58%
In short
- Our ratings favor the Clippers by 12 points, home court included
- Injuries tilt it toward the Kings by 9.0 points
Why this number
PremiumEvery step from a coin flip to our number, in the order our model adds them.
- An even game50%Every game starts as a coin flip.
- Home court+1262%Playing at home is worth about 3.9 points to the Clippers.
- See how far every step moved our number.
- Our numberClippers 58%
Each step is that piece's share of the model, so the steps add up to the number we published.
The range
In 9 of 10 simulations, the result lands between Kings by 20 and Clippers by 25.
What if he's out?
PremiumSwitch a player off and we rerun the game without him.
Clippers win chance
58%
Kings 42%Clippers 58%
- Top scorerKings
- Top scorerClippers
In our model a star out costs his team 4.5 points, up to 9 for a whole roster.
A preview of Premium, which we're building now.
Our number over time
Down 6 from 64% to 58%
Oct 3Oct 9
Injury report
Kings
- Leaky BlackDay-To-Day
- Domantas SabonisDay-To-Day
- Keegan MurrayDay-To-Day
- Malik MonkDay-To-Day
- Ben SimmonsDay-To-Day
Clippers
- Max StrusOut
- Yanic Konan NiederhauserOut
- Brandon IngramOut
- Jordan MillerOut
- Kobe SandersDay-To-Day
- Bradley BealDay-To-Day
Our method
- We simulate the final margin 40,000 times from our team ratings (Elo, fitted walk-forward) and the ESPN injury report.
- The win chance is the share of those simulations each team wins.
- Model v1.2.0, updated Oct 9.