NBA · Regular season ·
Will the Pistons beat the Heat?
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Pistons win chance
57%
Typical margin: Pistons by 2.5
Pistons 57%Heat 43%
In short
- Our ratings favor the Pistons by 1.6 points, home court included
- Injuries tilt it toward the Pistons by 1.1 points
Why this number
PremiumEvery step from a coin flip to our number, in the order our model adds them.
- An even game50%Every game starts as a coin flip.
- Home court−1040%Playing at home is worth about 3.9 points to the Heat.
- See how far every step moved our number.
- Our numberPistons 57%
Each step is that piece's share of the model, so the steps add up to the number we published.
The range
In 9 of 10 simulations, the result lands between Pistons by 25 and Heat by 20.
What if he's out?
PremiumSwitch a player off and we rerun the game without him.
Pistons win chance
57%
Pistons 57%Heat 43%
- Top scorerPistons
- Top scorerHeat
In our model a star out costs his team 4.5 points, up to 9 for a whole roster.
A preview of Premium, which we're building now.
Our number over time
Down 4 from 61% to 57%
Oct 3Oct 9
Injury report
Pistons
- Jalen DurenDay-To-Day
Heat
- Keshad JohnsonOut
- Kylor KelleyDay-To-Day
- Pelle LarssonDay-To-Day
- Dru SmithDay-To-Day
Our method
- We simulate the final margin 40,000 times from our team ratings (Elo, fitted walk-forward) and the ESPN injury report.
- The win chance is the share of those simulations each team wins.
- Model v1.2.0, updated Oct 9.