Will the Jets beat the Browns?

Jets win chance

In short

• The market (Polymarket) has the Jets at 55%, and it carries 85% of our number
• Our ratings favor the Browns by 2.2 points, home field included
• Close to a coin flip on our numbers

Every step from a coin flip to our number, in the order our model adds them.

1. An even game50%Every game starts as a coin flip.
2. Home field+151%Playing at home is worth about 1.7 points to the Jets.
3. Team strength+657%How the two teams compare in our ratings.
4. The market−354%What the betting market's price adds.
5. Starting quarterbacks+256%Who starts at quarterback for each side.
6. See how far every step moved our number.See every step
7. Our numberJets 54%

Each step is that piece's share of the model, so the steps add up to the number we published.

The range

In 9 of 10 simulations, the result lands between Browns by 21 and Jets by 23.

Switch a player off and we rerun the game without him.

Our number over time

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