2026 midterms · Tracking · Updated Oct 9
Elections
Nothing to grade yet. We refresh polls, ratings and campaign filings every day and re-run the forecast — every 15 minutes from Oct 20 through election night.
Nov 3
Election day. Our record starts with the real results — wins and misses alike.
What gets graded
Our current calls. These can still move until election day.
How we'll grade
For each race, and for control of each chamber, we take the last number we published before polls closed and check it against the result.
A race counts as called right if the side we gave better than even odds wins. We also score how well-sized our confidence was: a miss at 90% counts for far more than a miss at 55%.
That score is the Brier score: the squared gap between our probability and what happened (1 if it happened, 0 if not), averaged over races. 0 is perfect; saying 50% every time scores 0.250.
Why there's no record yet
A track record only means something when it's made of real forecasts, published before the event and graded after it. The 2026 midterms are our first.
How the forecast works ›