Updated Oct 9
Breakdowns
Every race we forecast, grouped by how close it is.
Senate
Democrats winTypical: 52 D · 48 R
73%
House
Democrats winTypical: 234 D · 201 R
95%
Closest Senate race
MaineJackson (D) over Collins
54%
Senate
53 lean Democratic47 lean Republican
51 for control
Under 60% either way (2)Not up this year (65)
Close · under 60%
Leaning · 60–79%
KansasMarshall (R) over Hamilton (D)60%AlaskaPeltola (D) over Sullivan (R)61%South CarolinaGraham (R) over Andrews (D)61%NebraskaRicketts (R) over Osborn (I)66%MinnesotaFlanagan (D) over Tafoya (R)67%TexasTalarico (D) over Paxton (R)73%MichiganEl-Sayed (D) over Rogers (R)74%OhioBrown (D) over Husted (R)74%LouisianaLetlow (R) over Davis (D)78%
House
434 districts
236 lean Democratic199 lean Republican
218 for control
Under 60% either way (16)
Closest districts
Alabama 2ndFigures (D) over Marques (R)53%Florida 7thElijah (R) over Dalton (D)53%Florida 9thSoto (D) over Chalifoux (R)53%Texas 35thGarcia (D) over De La Cruz (R)53%Iowa 2ndJames (D) over Mitchell (R)54%Montana 1stForstag (D) over Flint (R)54%Colorado 5thCrank (R) over Killin (D)55%Florida 27thSalazar (R) over Peguero (D)57%
What if the polls miss?
Democrats win the Senate
73%
Our forecast
Typical result: 52 D · 48 R
Democratic seats across the simulations
4051 for control64
Slide to see what changes if the polls miss.
The same 40,000 simulated elections as our forecast, with every race moved by the same amount.
How to read these numbers
- Each percentage is our chance that the named candidate wins, from 40,000 simulated elections.
- Close means under 60% either way. Leaning is 60 to 79%. Clear is 80% and up.
- In Nebraska, independent Dan Osborn counts on the Democratic side for control.
- Of the 65 Senate seats not up this year, 34 are held by Democrats or independents who vote with them, and 31 by Republicans. Democrats need 51 because the vice president is a Republican.
Where these numbers come from
Model v1.2.0, run Oct 9, 2026. Polls, expert ratings and FEC filings go in; nothing here is hand-set.