U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Minnesota's 1st District
Brad Finstad win chance
67%
Typical margin: Finstad by 3.5
Republican
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Brad Finstad
Raised $2.0M · $1.3M cash on hand · through Jul 22, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Jacob Johnson
Raised $2.0M · $1.0M cash on hand · through Jul 22, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model reads the two war chests as about even.
Other filers in this race raised $979.7 in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Likely RCook Political Report
- Jul 22Jacob Johnson had raised $2.0MFEC filing
- Jul 22Brad Finstad had raised $2.0MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between R+15.5 and D+8.9.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›