Senate · 35 races
Your map
Call the races. Watch the seats, and our odds, move.
Our chance today
73%
Democrats win
the Senate
Call a race to see it move.
Dem 3435 openRep 31
DemocratRepublicanNot calledTap a state to call it
The races
Closest first
Our forecast is under each state. Tap a name to call it.
MaineOur forecast: Jackson 54%
IowaOur forecast: Turek 57%
KansasOur forecast: Marshall 60%
South CarolinaOur forecast: Graham 61%
AlaskaOur forecast: Peltola 61%
NebraskaOur forecast: Ricketts 66%
MinnesotaOur forecast: Flanagan 67%
TexasOur forecast: Talarico 73%
MichiganOur forecast: El-Sayed 74%
OhioOur forecast: Brown 74%
LouisianaOur forecast: Letlow 78%
South DakotaOur forecast: Rounds 80%
How your calls move our odds
Democrats start with 34 seats that aren't up this year, Republicans with 31. Democrats need 51; a 50–50 Senate stays Republican.
When you call a race, we hold it fixed and rerun our model on the rest. Races move together: if you call an upset, our model reads that as a sign the polls missed in that party's favor everywhere, and the other races shift too.
Nebraska's Democratic-side candidate is the independent Dan Osborn.
Our numbers updated Oct 9.