Updated Oct 9

About the numbers

Where our election numbers come from, and how they move.

470

Races

40,000

Simulated elections

Nov 3

Election Day

How the numbers move

Model v1.2.0

Oct 8 · 7:17 PM ET
Previous run
Senate D 73%House D 95%
Oct 8 · 10:58 PM ET
Latest run
Senate D 73%House D 95%
Oct 15
Third-quarter fundraising reports due
New FEC money totals feed the next run.
Nov 3
Election Day
After the count
Every forecast graded
Track record ›

Biggest moves since the previous run

MinnesotaSenate · Flanagan (D)66%→67%South DakotaSenate · Rounds (R)79%→80%LouisianaSenate · Letlow (R)77%→78%ArkansasSenate · Cotton (R)90%→91%FloridaSenate · Moody (R)96%→97%

Sources

Dates show our last pull

Polls

Senate poll averagesPublished averages, mostly RealClearPolitics, via WikipediaOct 8 Generic ballotThe national mood: DDHQ, NBC News, RealClearPolitics and othersOct 8

Expert ratings

Cook Political ReportRatings for every Senate and House raceOct 8 Inside ElectionsSenate ratings, used where Cook has noneOct 8 Sabato's Crystal BallSenate ratings, the second fallbackOct 8

Candidates, money and seats

Federal Election CommissionCandidates, incumbents and fundraisingOct 8 Current senatorsWho holds each Senate seat today, via WikipediaOct 8 Census Bureau, American Community SurveyDemographics on race pages

History

FiveThirtyEight polling archivePast Senate polls, used to size poll misses

Licenses

FEC and Census data are public domain.
The FiveThirtyEight archive is CC BY 4.0. Wikipedia tables are CC BY-SA; the averages in them belong to their publishers.
Cook, Inside Elections and Sabato ratings are licensed products, shown with credit. They are the raters' judgment, not our forecast.

District lines

District boundaries shown are the 119th Congress (2024 elections). Mid-decade redraws and litigation across 2025 — in Texas, California, North Carolina, Florida, Tennessee, Utah, and Louisiana — may change 2026 lines; the production map will ship the certified 2026 geometry.

How the forecast works ›Track record ›