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2nd Opinion

Senate · 35 races

Tipping point

The races most likely to decide who runs the Senate.

Democrats win the Senate

73%

Typical result 52–48

Republicans 27%

Democrats 73%Republicans 27%

Range of outcomes

Democratic seats

In 9 of 10 simulations, Democrats finish with 48 to 56 seats. They need 51.

The races that decide it

How often

Iowa is the race most likely to settle control: it decides it in 9% of simulations.

1IowaTurek 57% vs Hinson9%2MaineJackson 54% vs Collins9%3MichiganEl-Sayed 74% vs Rogers9%4TexasTalarico 73% vs Paxton9%5OhioBrown 74% vs Husted9%6AlaskaPeltola 61% vs Sullivan7%7KansasMarshall 60% vs Hamilton7%8MinnesotaFlanagan 67% vs Tafoya7%9New HampshirePappas 86% vs Sununu6%10South CarolinaGraham 61% vs Andrews6%
How we find the tipping point

We simulate the election 40,000 times. In each one, we line up the 35 races from the strongest Democratic result to the strongest Republican one.

Democrats start with 34 seats that aren't up this year, Republicans with 31. Walking down the line, the race that gives Democrats their 51st seat is the tipping point. The percentage is how often each race lands in that spot.

A 50–50 Senate stays Republican: the vice president breaks ties.

Nebraska's independent, Dan Osborn, counts on the Democratic side.

Our method ›
About these numbers

Second Opinion model, version 1, run Oct 9. One fixed seed, so the numbers are the same on every load. The model hasn't been graded against 2026 results yet; we'll score it after the votes are counted.