U.S. Senate · Updated Oct 9
Kansas Senate
Roger Marshall win chance
60%
Typical margin: Marshall by 1.5
Republican
Who's running
What would change it
Move today's polling average and watch our number move with it.
Today: Marshall +1.5 in the pollsMarshall's chance with the polls as they are
60%
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Roger Marshall
Raised $4.0M · $5.4M cash on hand · through Jul 15, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Adam Hamilton
Raised $4.2M · $1.7M cash on hand · through Jul 15, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model reads the two war chests as about even.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
Who lives in Kansas
Median age38.0
Bachelor's degree or higher (25+)36.0%
Lives in urban areas72.3%
White, non-Hispanic71.8%
Hispanic14.2%
Black5.1%
Asian3.0%
Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2024; urban share from the 2020 Census. Who lives here, not who votes for whom.
How the numbers moved
- Oct 1Inside Elections: Likely RInside Elections
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Lean RCook Political Report
- Sep 22Sabato's Crystal Ball: Lean RSabato's Crystal Ball
- Sep 18Roger Marshall +1.5 in the polling averageRCP average, Sep 18 2026
- Jul 15Adam Hamilton had raised $4.2MFEC filing
- Jul 15Roger Marshall had raised $4.0MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between R+10.6 and D+7.8.
Our method ›