U.S. Senate · Updated Oct 9
Alaska Senate
Mary Peltola win chance
61%
Typical margin: Peltola by 2
Democrat
Who's running
What would change it
Move today's polling average and watch our number move with it.
Today: Peltola +1.7 in the pollsPeltola's chance with the polls as they are
61%
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Dan Sullivan
Raised $9.1M · $7.3M cash on hand · through Jul 29, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Mary Peltola
Raised $18.5M · $4.6M cash on hand · through Jul 29, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 0.3 points to Mary Peltola. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
Who lives in Alaska
Median age36.3
Bachelor's degree or higher (25+)32.8%
Lives in urban areas64.9%
White, non-Hispanic57.0%
Hispanic7.7%
Black2.4%
Asian5.9%
Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2024; urban share from the 2020 Census. Who lives here, not who votes for whom.
How the numbers moved
- Oct 1Inside Elections: Toss UpInside Elections
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Toss UpCook Political Report
- Sep 22Sabato's Crystal Ball: Toss UpSabato's Crystal Ball
- Sep 18Mary Peltola +1.7 in the polling averageRCP average, Sep 18 2026
- Jul 29Mary Peltola had raised $18.5MFEC filing
- Jul 29Dan Sullivan had raised $9.1MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between R+9.7 and D+13.7.
Our method ›