U.S. Senate · Updated Oct 9
Michigan Senate
Abdul El-Sayed win chance
74%
Typical margin: El-Sayed by 3.5
Democrat
Who's running
What would change it
Move today's polling average and watch our number move with it.
Today: El-Sayed +3.4 in the pollsEl-Sayed's chance with the polls as they are
74%
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Abdul El-Sayed
Raised $14.5M · $2.6M cash on hand · through Jul 15, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Mike Rogers
Raised $10.9M · $4.5M cash on hand · through Jul 15, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 0.1 points to Abdul El-Sayed. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
Who lives in Michigan
Median age40.4
Bachelor's degree or higher (25+)33.3%
Lives in urban areas73.5%
White, non-Hispanic71.6%
Hispanic6.1%
Black12.9%
Asian3.7%
Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2024; urban share from the 2020 Census. Who lives here, not who votes for whom.
How the numbers moved
- Oct 1Inside Elections: Tilt DInside Elections
- Sep 30Abdul El-Sayed +3.4 in the polling averageRCP average, Sep 30 2026
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Toss UpCook Political Report
- Sep 22Sabato's Crystal Ball: Lean DSabato's Crystal Ball
- Jul 15Mike Rogers had raised $10.9MFEC filing
- Jul 15Abdul El-Sayed had raised $14.5MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between R+5.6 and D+12.8.
Our method ›