U.S. Senate · Updated Oct 9
Minnesota Senate
Peggy Flanagan win chance
67%
Typical margin: Flanagan by 3
Democrat
Who's running
What would change it
Move today's polling average and watch our number move with it.
Today: Flanagan +1.6 in the pollsFlanagan's chance with the polls as they are
67%
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Peggy Flanagan
Raised $6.5M · $1.1M cash on hand · through Jul 22, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Michele Tafoya
Raised $5.3M · $1.4M cash on hand · through Jul 22, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 0.1 points to Peggy Flanagan. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
Who lives in Minnesota
Median age39.2
Bachelor's degree or higher (25+)40.0%
Lives in urban areas71.9%
White, non-Hispanic74.7%
Hispanic6.7%
Black7.5%
Asian5.2%
Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2024; urban share from the 2020 Census. Who lives here, not who votes for whom.
How the numbers moved
- Oct 1Inside Elections: Lean DInside Elections
- Sep 30Peggy Flanagan +1.6 in the polling averageRCP average, Sep 30 2026
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Likely DCook Political Report
- Sep 22Sabato's Crystal Ball: Likely DSabato's Crystal Ball
- Jul 22Michele Tafoya had raised $5.3MFEC filing
- Jul 22Peggy Flanagan had raised $6.5MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between R+8.5 and D+14.8.
Our method ›