U.S. Senate · Updated Oct 9
Iowa Senate
Josh Turek win chance
57%
Typical margin: Turek by 1
Democrat
Who's running
What would change it
Move today's polling average and watch our number move with it.
Today: Turek +0.3 in the pollsTurek's chance with the polls as they are
57%
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Ashley Hinson
Raised $10.2M · $6.7M cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Josh Turek
Raised $6.3M · $2.4M cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 0.2 points to Ashley Hinson. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
Who lives in Iowa
Median age39.0
Bachelor's degree or higher (25+)32.1%
Lives in urban areas63.2%
White, non-Hispanic81.2%
Hispanic7.8%
Black4.1%
Asian2.6%
Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2024; urban share from the 2020 Census. Who lives here, not who votes for whom.
How the numbers moved
- Oct 1Inside Elections: Tilt RInside Elections
- Sep 30Josh Turek +0.3 in the polling averageRCP average, Sep 30 2026
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Toss UpCook Political Report
- Sep 22Sabato's Crystal Ball: Toss UpSabato's Crystal Ball
- Jun 30Josh Turek had raised $6.3MFEC filing
- Jun 30Ashley Hinson had raised $10.2MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between R+8.2 and D+10.2.
Our method ›