U.S. Senate · Updated Oct 9
Ohio Senate
Sherrod Brown win chance
74%
Typical margin: Brown by 3.5
Democrat
Who's running
What would change it
Move today's polling average and watch our number move with it.
Today: Brown +3.8 in the pollsBrown's chance with the polls as they are
74%
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Jon Husted
Raised $14.4M · $9.4M cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Sherrod Brown
Raised $38.6M · $16.2M cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 0.4 points to Sherrod Brown. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
Who lives in Ohio
Median age39.8
Bachelor's degree or higher (25+)32.4%
Lives in urban areas76.3%
White, non-Hispanic75.0%
Hispanic5.1%
Black11.9%
Asian2.7%
Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2024; urban share from the 2020 Census. Who lives here, not who votes for whom.
How the numbers moved
- Oct 1Inside Elections: Toss UpInside Elections
- Sep 29Sherrod Brown +3.8 in the polling averageRCP average, Sep 29 2026
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Toss UpCook Political Report
- Sep 22Sabato's Crystal Ball: Toss UpSabato's Crystal Ball
- Jun 30Sherrod Brown had raised $38.6MFEC filing
- Jun 30Jon Husted had raised $14.4MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between R+5.7 and D+12.8.
Our method ›