U.S. Senate · Updated Oct 9

Maine Senate

Troy Jackson win chance

54%

Typical margin: Jackson by 0.5

Democrat

Troy Jackson 54%Susan Collins 46%

Who's running

Susan CollinsRepublican · Incumbent

Troy JacksonDemocrat

What would change it

Move today's polling average and watch our number move with it.

Today: Jackson +0.2 in the pollsJackson's chance with the polls as they are

54%

The numbers behind it

Polling averageRCP average, Oct 1 2026Jackson +0.2

Cook Political ReportAs of Sep 23, 2026Toss Up

Inside ElectionsAs of Oct 1, 2026Toss Up

Sabato's Crystal BallAs of Sep 22, 2026Toss Up

Money raisedFEC, through Jun 30, 2026Collins $16.2M

Since our last updateOct 8, 2026 → Oct 9, 202654% → 54%

Campaign money

Susan Collins

Raised $16.2M · $11.0M cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗

Troy Jackson

No FEC report filed yet — became the Democratic nominee in late July 2026 after Graham Platner's withdrawal; first report (Q3) due Oct 15, 2026.

Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.

Who lives in Maine

Median age44.9

Bachelor's degree or higher (25+)37.1%

Lives in urban areas38.6%

White, non-Hispanic89.1%

Hispanic2.3%

Black2.0%

Asian1.3%

Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2024; urban share from the 2020 Census. Who lives here, not who votes for whom.

How the numbers moved

Oct 1Troy Jackson +0.2 in the polling averageRCP average, Oct 1 2026
Oct 1Inside Elections: Toss UpInside Elections
Sep 23Cook Political Report: Toss UpCook Political Report
Sep 22Sabato's Crystal Ball: Toss UpSabato's Crystal Ball
Jun 30Susan Collins had raised $16.2MFEC filing

How we got this number

We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.

90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between R+8.7 and D+9.8.

Our method ›