U.S. Senate · Updated Oct 9
Texas Senate
James Talarico win chance
73%
Typical margin: Talarico by 3.5
Democrat
Who's running
What would change it
Move today's polling average and watch our number move with it.
Today: Talarico +3.0 in the pollsTalarico's chance with the polls as they are
73%
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Ken Paxton
Raised $9.2M · $1.8M cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
James Talarico
Raised $68.6M · $21.5M cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 0.9 points to James Talarico. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
Who lives in Texas
Median age35.9
Bachelor's degree or higher (25+)35.2%
Lives in urban areas83.7%
White, non-Hispanic37.8%
Hispanic40.3%
Black12.0%
Asian6.0%
Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2024; urban share from the 2020 Census. Who lives here, not who votes for whom.
How the numbers moved
- Oct 1Inside Elections: Tilt RInside Elections
- Sep 27James Talarico +3.0 in the polling averageRCP average, Sep 27 2026
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Toss UpCook Political Report
- Sep 22Sabato's Crystal Ball: Toss UpSabato's Crystal Ball
- Jun 30James Talarico had raised $68.6MFEC filing
- Jun 30Ken Paxton had raised $9.2MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between R+5.7 and D+12.7.
Our method ›