U.S. Senate · Updated Oct 9
South Carolina Senate
Lindsey O. Graham win chance
61%
Typical margin: Graham by 2
Republican
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Lindsey O. Graham
Raised $21.5M · $2.3M cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Annie Andrews
Raised $10.8M · $4.1M cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 0.3 points to Lindsey O. Graham. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Oct 1Inside Elections: Likely RepublicanInside Elections
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Likely RCook Political Report
- Jun 30Annie Andrews had raised $10.8MFEC filing
- Jun 30Lindsey O. Graham had raised $21.5MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between R+13.6 and D+9.8.
The polling average we use has it at R+1.6.
Our method ›