U.S. Senate · Updated Oct 9
New Hampshire Senate
Chris Pappas win chance
86%
Typical margin: Pappas by 6
Democrat
Who's running
What would change it
Move today's polling average and watch our number move with it.
Today: Pappas +6.5 in the pollsPappas's chance with the polls as they are
86%
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Chris Pappas
Raised $15.4M · $4.3M cash on hand · through Aug 19, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
John E. Sununu
Raised $4.2M · $3.1M cash on hand · through Aug 19, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 0.6 points to Chris Pappas. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
Who lives in New Hampshire
Median age43.6
Bachelor's degree or higher (25+)41.5%
Lives in urban areas58.3%
White, non-Hispanic86.4%
Hispanic5.0%
Black1.3%
Asian2.7%
Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2024; urban share from the 2020 Census. Who lives here, not who votes for whom.
How the numbers moved
- Oct 1Inside Elections: Toss UpInside Elections
- Sep 27Chris Pappas +6.5 in the polling averageRCP average, Sep 27 2026
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Toss UpCook Political Report
- Sep 22Sabato's Crystal Ball: Lean DSabato's Crystal Ball
- Aug 19John E. Sununu had raised $4.2MFEC filing
- Aug 19Chris Pappas had raised $15.4MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between R+3.1 and D+15.3.
Our method ›