U.S. Senate · Updated Oct 9
Nebraska Senate
Pete Ricketts win chance
66%
Typical margin: Ricketts by 3
Republican
Who's running
What would change it
Move today's polling average and watch our number move with it.
Today: Ricketts +2.8 in the pollsRicketts's chance with the polls as they are
66%
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Pete Ricketts
Raised $11.2M · $6.9M cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Dan Osborn
Raised $5.8M · $2.4M cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 0.3 points to Pete Ricketts. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
Who lives in Nebraska
Median age37.4
Bachelor's degree or higher (25+)35.4%
Lives in urban areas73.0%
White, non-Hispanic74.0%
Hispanic13.5%
Black4.5%
Asian2.8%
Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2024; urban share from the 2020 Census. Who lives here, not who votes for whom.
How the numbers moved
- Oct 1Pete Ricketts +2.8 in the polling averagePollsmax average, Oct 1 2026 (no RCP average published)
- Oct 1Inside Elections: Lean RInside Elections
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Likely RCook Political Report
- Sep 22Sabato's Crystal Ball: Likely RSabato's Crystal Ball
- Jun 30Dan Osborn had raised $5.8MFEC filing
- Jun 30Pete Ricketts had raised $11.2MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between R+14.6 and D+8.8.
Our method ›