U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Florida's 7th District
Ryan Elijah win chance
53%
Typical margin: Elijah by 0.5
Republican
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Bale Dalton
Raised $1.4M · $476K cash on hand · through Jul 29, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Ryan Elijah
Raised $356K · $186K cash on hand · through Jul 29, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 0.6 points to Bale Dalton. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $625K in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Likely RCook Political Report
- Jul 29Ryan Elijah had raised $356KFEC filing
- Jul 29Bale Dalton had raised $1.4MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between R+12.8 and D+11.6.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›