U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Arizona's 2nd District
Eli Crane win chance
69%
Typical margin: Crane by 3.5
Republican
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Eli Crane
Raised $9.5M · $2.8M cash on hand · through Jul 1, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Jonathan Michael Nez
Raised $3.5M · $1.9M cash on hand · through Jul 1, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 0.4 points to Eli Crane. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $4K in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Likely RCook Political Report
- Jul 1Jonathan Michael Nez had raised $3.5MFEC filing
- Jul 1Eli Crane had raised $9.5MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between R+15.9 and D+8.5.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›